The 2018 NBA Draft is littered with 'what ifs.'
What if the Phoenix Suns didn't use the first overall pick to select Deandre Ayton? What if the Sacramento Kings didn't continue an enduring legacy of poor recruitment by taking Marvin Bagley III next? What if the Atlanta Hawks didn't trade the No. 3 selection, Luka Doncic, to the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 5 pick, Trae Young? These hypotheticals don't even take into account another questionable swap for the reigning two-time MVP.
Here's a re-examination of the 2018 NBA Draft's first round, focusing more on the players' careers than any team-specific needs at that time.
Stats reflect NBA career regular-season totals.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 514 | 29.2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 46.9 | 35.2 | 75.5 |
2018 draft: 3rd pick (Hawks)
Actual 1st pick: Deandre Ayton
Doncic was viewed as unathletic and defensively deficient despite bossing European foes as a teen. The six-time All-Star hasn't dispelled those critiques, though he's emerged as one of the NBA's dominant forces. Knowing what we know, there's no chance the Suns would take Ayton over Doncic. Same goes for the Hawks' decision to swap him with the Mavs for Young.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 530 | 25.3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 50.8 | 36 | 86.4 |
2018 draft: 11th pick (Hornets)
Actual 2nd pick: Marvin Bagley III
Only a superstar of a special ilk could keep Gilgeous-Alexander from top billing here. It's almost impossible to fathom the Kings' alternate trajectory with Gilgeous-Alexander - or other scenarios involving the two-time MVP's selection (more on that later). Instead, Sacramento opted for Duke power forward Bagley, who's entering his ninth season on a veteran-minimum deal.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 561 | 19.2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 48.5 | 38.5 | 82.6 |
2018 draft: 33rd pick (Mavericks)
Actual 3rd pick: Luka Doncic
While Brunson was the National Player of the Year and an NCAA champ after his junior year at Villanova, few would have foreseen the undersized point guard earning a lottery pick - let alone a top-three spot. The Hawks certainly weren't resistant to picking an undersized playmaker at No. 3, having drafted Doncic and flipping him for Young. In the end, the Mavs selected Brunson at No. 33 anyway.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 498 | 25.1 | 3.4 | 9.8 | 43.3 | 35.2 | 87.2 |
2018 draft: 5th pick (Mavericks)
Actual 4th pick: Jaren Jackson Jr.
An injury-filled 2025-26 season may have dimmed perceptions of Young, but he's still an All-Star-caliber guard who averaged 24-plus points and 10-plus assists in each of the previous three seasons. Defensive shortcomings notwithstanding, the four-time All-Star has shown he can lead a well-constructed team to the conference finals.
| GP | PTS | REB | BLK | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 455 | 18.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 46.7 | 35.1 | 79.3 |
2018 draft: 4th pick (Grizzlies)
Actual 5th pick: Trae Young
Jackson, a two-time All-Star and league leader in blocks, falls to fifth despite becoming an accomplished presence at both ends of the court. An elite rim-protector and a former Defensive Player of the Year, he also fits the profile of a floor-stretching big with his perimeter chops. Still, given his size, Jackson should be a better rebounder.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 638 | 14.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 48.5 | 37.1 | 84.2 |
2018 draft: 10th pick (76ers)
Actual 6th pick: Mo Bamba
Not even bench-unit misanthrope and coach Tom Thibodeau could run the NBA's ironman into the ground. Bridges, unofficially the league's anti-load-management top dog, owns the league's longest active consecutive-games streak and has become a high-level two-way contributor on a championship team.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 397 | 17.3 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 49.3 | 39.8 | 81.2 |
2018 draft: 14th pick (Nuggets)
Actual 7th pick: Wendell Carter Jr.
In a parallel universe, podcasts don't exist, and the Bulls grab 6-foot-10 perimeter threat Porter at No. 7, securing the services of a franchise cornerstone. Instead, we live in a world where Porter, a podcast-sphere intellectual, fell to the Nuggets at No. 14, while Chicago got two-and-a-half unglamorous but not insignificant years out of Carter before trading him.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 501 | 15.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 46.1 | 33.8 | 82.5 |
2018 draft: 12th pick (Clippers)
Actual 8th pick: Collin Sexton
By no means should Bridges' off-court issues be glossed over, but from a purely basketball perspective, he's an elite slasher and transition threat whose size allows him to guard multiple positions. However, he could be a more efficient scorer and has never made the playoffs, a streak that's likely to continue after he signed with the Suns this offseason.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 498 | 11 | 4.3 | 3 | 42.3 | 38 | 76.7 |
2018 draft: 17th pick (Bucks)
Actual 9th pick: Kevin Knox II
DiVincenzo's 27.3 wins over replacement player ranks tied for sixth among this draft class. He's become a dependable and versatile do-everything guard whose improved perimeter play is highly coveted by top-tier teams. The 29-year-old will almost certainly miss the 2026-27 campaign after rupturing his Achilles in the first round of last season's playoffs.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 470 | 15.8 | 10.1 | 1.5 | 59.9 | 23 | 74.1 |
2018 draft: 1st pick (Suns)
Actual 10th pick: Mikal Bridges
Criticizing first overall pick Ayton is a bit harsh, considering he's had a solid NBA tenure to date. Setting aside the expectations that come with being the No. 1 selection, Ayton is averaging a double-double for his career and earned All-Rookie first-team honors in 2019. He has also performed very well when playing alongside an elite facilitator like Doncic or Chris Paul.
| GP | PTS | REB | BLK | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 397 | 7.5 | 8 | 1.7 | 70.2 | N/A | 70.2 |
2018 draft: 36th pick (Knicks)
Actual 11th pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Robinson entered the 2018 draft as the ultimate wild card - a high-upside prospect who skipped college to prepare independently before opting out of the draft combine. As a pro, the rangy 7-footer has materialized into one of the league's elite offensive rebounders.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 454 | 11.2 | 3 | 2.2 | 44.3 | 40.3 | 85.7 |
2018 draft: 21st pick (Jazz)
Actual 12th pick: Miles Bridges
The Clippers took Bridges at No. 12 and immediately swapped him with Charlotte for the previous pick, Gilgeous-Alexander. That draft-day deal isn't among ex-Hornets GM Mitch Kupchak's finest moments. With Bridges and Gilgeous-Alexander both off the board in our redraft, floor-slapping Duke agitator Allen makes the grade.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 475 | 18.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 47.2 | 38.9 | 84.1 |
2018 draft: 8th pick (Cavaliers)
Actual 13th pick: Jerome Robinson
A career 18.3 points-per-game scorer landing at the tail end of a lottery spot speaks to the depth of this draft. Sexton has been a dependable combo guard who's performed at a high level on losing teams. An offseason move to the Lakers should be a refreshing change of pace for him.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 461 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 2 | 51 | 31.6 | 74 |
2018 draft: 7th pick (Bulls)
Actual 14th pick: Michael Porter Jr.
Carter may not have lived up to the expectations of a seventh overall pick in a deep draft, but he's established himself as a dependable, fundamentally sound starting big. He can do a bit of everything and hits enough pick-and-pop jumpers to keep defenders honest.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500 | 11.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 43.7 | 39.9 | 84.8 |
2018 draft: Undrafted
Actual 15th pick: Troy Brown Jr.
Duncan was viewed as an elite perimeter marksman with limited athleticism, but he grew into an efficient, high-volume scorer with good length and a quick release. He started 77 games last season for the Pistons and went from being undrafted to pocketing $89 million in career earnings. Not bad.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 444 | 14.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 43.2 | 38.1 | 88.1 |
2018 draft: 24th pick (Blazers)
Actual 16th pick: Zhaire Smith
Simons bypassed college after a spell at the talent incubator IMG Academy and endured three underwhelming years with the Trail Blazers before finding his footing as a high-scoring threat. He now fits the profile of a reliable source of bench points on teams with playoff ambitions.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 539 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 47.6 | 34.4 | 76.7 |
2018 draft: 42nd pick (Pistons)
Actual 17th pick: Donte DiVincenzo
People assessing a player's credentials often overlook intangibles. Brown was a fiery competitor in college, and that has translated well to the pros, where he's played multiple roles at both ends of the court and had a sizeable impact on the title-winning Nuggets.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 480 | 13 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 42 | 38.7 | 81.9 |
2018 draft: 37th pick (Kings)
Actual 18th pick: Lonnie Walker IV
Trent is coming off his most disappointing season as a pro and was subsequently rewarded with a bizarre four-year, $64-million deal from the Bucks. But he's also produced a solid NBA career as a shooting savant and has outplayed his original draft slot.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 551 | 11.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 44.2 | 36.8 | 76.2 |
2018 draft: 19th pick (Hawks)
Huerter is the sole player in our hypothetical reimagination of the 2018 draft to land exactly where he was picked. He's incrementally added new facets to his game, though it's troublingly coincided with a dip in his primary strength: outside shooting. Over the past two seasons, Huerter's three-point percentage has declined to just 30.4%.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 449 | 8.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 41.6 | 38.6 | 81.5 |
2018 draft: 26th pick (76ers)
Actual 20th pick: Josh Okogie
Winning teams all have a Shamet - a solid and unassuming role player capable of catching fire off the bench. During the Knicks' title run, he set the NBA record for the highest 3-point percentage in a playoff series, shooting 91.7% on 12 attempts in New York's conference finals sweep of the Cavaliers.
| GP | PTS | REB | BLK | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 294 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 72 | 33.3 | 66.1 |
2018 draft: 27th pick (Celtics)
Actual 21st pick: Grayson Allen
Williams is a bouncy shot-blocker and rebounder with a soft touch whose career has been largely beset by injuries. He's played the fewest games of any player in our redraft, but his per-minute impact at both ends of the court is undeniable when he's healthy.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 399 | 9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 51.8 | 32.3 | 80.8 |
2018 draft: 25th pick (Lakers)
Actual 22nd pick: Chandler Hutchinson
Wagner was never going to be an NBA star. Instead, he's become a sturdy bench big who can effectively contribute in many ways and operate within the margins of the game. He also plays with a competitive vigor that can spark a reserve unit.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 405 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 41 | 35.8 | 78.9 |
2018 draft: 46th pick (Rockets)
Actual 23rd pick: Aaron Holiday
We're decidedly in the thick of this theoretical exercise, where microscopic differences separate the players. Melton lands at No. 23 for his impact on the defensive end, as the rotation-level wing is known for his relentless effort and active hands, averaging 1.4 steals per game over his career.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 374 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 54.6 | 29 | 63.3 |
2018 draft: 41st pick (Magic)
Actual 24th pick: Anfernee Simons
Like Melton, Vanderbilt has carved out a decent career thanks to his defensive contributions. He can make winning plays while accepting a smaller role, which is a profound change from his five-star status and prized pedigree as a McDonald's All-American. This should be admired.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 349 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 1 | 53.1 | 30.8 | 68.5 |
2018 draft: 2nd pick (Kings)
Actual 25th pick: Moritz Wagner
Bagley has unequivocally not lived up to the billing of a No. 2 pick, but it's easy to overlook the fact that the consensus first-team All-American averaged 21 points and 11 boards on 61.4% shooting at Duke. While the expectations of being a top draft selection will forever burden Bagley, he's had a modest career.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 447 | 6.4 | 4 | 1.7 | 47.1 | 36.8 | 56.4 |
2018 draft: Undrafted
Actual 26th pick: Landry Shamet
Williams wasn't exactly a hot commodity following his junior season at TCU, and his pro stats don't jump off the page. That said, earning the nickname "Kenny Hustle" takes some graft, and it's that work ethic and penchant for influential plays that have endeared him to Thunder fans.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 331 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 39.2 | 33.8 | 83.6 |
2018 draft: Undrafted
Actual 27th pick: Robert Williams III
Although Vincent earned All-Big West second-team honors in his senior season with UC Santa Barbara, he still went undrafted. To his credit, Vincent has proved his value as a useful reserve facilitator despite shabby shooting numbers.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 505 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 42.1 | 38.4 | 85.2 |
2018 draft: 23rd pick (Pacers)
Actual 28th pick: Jacob Evans
The least accomplished of the Holiday brothers after Jrue and Justin, Aaron has become a dependable role player and perimeter shooter who can contribute on defense. There's nothing glamorous about Holiday, but he's reliable, and that should be a desired trait at No. 28.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 289 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 51.7 | 33.6 | 72.1 |
2018 draft: Undrafted
Actual 29th pick: Dzanan Musa
Bosnian big Musa featured in 49 games for the Nets before he was shipped to the Pistons and ultimately waived. Meanwhile, Landale spent time with five different NBA teams before inking a one-year, $14-million contract with the Hawks this summer. Plus, few names suit an athlete better than Jock.
| GP | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 342 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 49.4 | 30.9 | 69.8 |
2018 draft: Undrafted
Actual 30th pick: Omari Spellman
Tate edges out Mo Bamba (No. 6), Josh Okogie (No. 20), Drew Eubanks (undrafted), and others for the last pick of Round 1. Atlanta took Villanova big Spellman instead. He appeared in 95 games across two seasons with the Hawks and Warriors and now plays for the Beijing Ducks.
